Research using records dating back to 1659 indicates at least a 13-fold rise in the likelihood of human-influenced climate change pushing up temperatures in central England, writes Alex Kirby.
If you live in England, prepare for a future where distinctly warmer years are the new normal. An international team of researchers says the likelihood of record-breaking warm years is going to increase substantially because of human influence on the climate.
Their study shows that the chance of England experiencing a record-breaking warm year, on a par with 2014, is at least 13 times higher. And there are signs that it could be even higher.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, is based on climate model simulations and detailed analyses of the Central England Temperature (CET) record − the world’s longest instrumental temperature record, dating back to 1659.
The results show that human activities have a large influence on extreme warm years in England − which is remarkable, the researchers say, because England is such a small region of the world.
Monthly recordings
The CET does not cover the whole of England, let alone Scotland or Wales or the rest of the British Isles. It has monthly recordings of average temperatures dating back to 1659, and recordings of average daily temperatures back to 1772.
It is designed to represent the climate of the English Midlands, a roughly triangular area bounded by Lancashire in the north, Bristol in the south-west and London in the south-east. The researchers say the CET has undergone thorough and extensive quality control, which makes it an ideal resource for studying long-term temperature trends across the region.
Story courtesy of Climate News Network
